HUMAN EXTINCTION RISKS IN THE COSMOLOGICAL AND ASTROBIOLOGICAL
CONTEXTS
Milan
M. Ćirković
Astronomical Observatory Belgrade
Volgina 7, 11160 Belgrade
Serbia and Montenegro
e-mail: mcirkovic@aob.aob.bg.ac.yu
Abstract
We review the subject of human extinction (in its modern form), with particular
emphasis on the natural sub-category of existential risks. Enormous breakthroughs
made in recent decades in understanding of our terrestrial and cosmic environments
shed new light on this old issue. In addition, our improved understanding
of extinction of other species, and the successes of the nascent discipline
of astrobiology create a mandate to elucidate the necessary conditions for
survival of complex living and/or intelligent systems. A range of topics
impacted by this “astrobiological revolution” encompasses such diverse fields
as anthropic reasoning, complexity theory, philosophy of mind, or search
for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI). Therefore, we shall attempt to
put the issue of human extinction into a wider context of a general astrobiological
picture of patterns of life/complex biospheres/intelligence in the Galaxy.
For instance, it seems possible to define a secularly evolving risk function
facing any complex metazoan lifeforms throughout the Galaxy. This multidisciplinary
approach offers a credible hope that in the very close future of humanity
all natural hazards will be well-understood and effective policies of reducing
or eliminating them conceived and successfully implemented. This will, in
turn, open way for a new issues dealing with the interaction of sentient
beings with its astrophysical environment on truly cosmological scales, issues
presciently speculated upon by great thinkers such as H. G. Wells, J. B.
S. Haldane or Olaf Stapledon.